White House 2008: Democratic Nomination

Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. March 9-12, 2007. N=682 registered voters nationwide who are Democrats or lean Democratic.

.

"Now I'm going to read a list of candidates who might be running for the Democratic Party presidential nomination in 2008. If the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, listen carefully to the names and then tell me which candidate you would be most likely to vote for. . . ." Names rotated

.

3/9-12/07 2/23-26/07 1/22-23/07
% % %
Hillary Rodham Clinton 34
36
40

Barack Obama 26
24
21

Al Gore 13
13
9

John Edwards 10
11
11

Dennis Kucinich 2
1
1

Bill Richardson 2
3
4

Joe Biden 1
2
2

Al Sharpton 1
1
1

Chris Dodd -
-
1

Other (vol.) 1
1
1

Will not vote (vol.) 1
1
-

Unsure 10
7
6

John Kerry n/a
n/a
4

Tom Vilsack n/a
n/a
-

.

"What if your choices for the Democratic nomination were just Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama and John Edwards -- which one would you vote for if you had to decide today?" Names rotated

.

3/9-12/07 2/23-26/07
% %
Hillary Rodham Clinton 42
42

Barack Obama 31
30

John Edwards 17
22

Other (vol.) 1
-

Will not vote (vol.) 2
2

Unsure 8
4


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CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. March 9-11, 2007. N=447 registered voters nationwide who are Democrats or independents who lean to the Democratic Party. MoE ± 4.5.

.

"Please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2008 . . . ." Names rotated

.

3/9-11/07
%
Hillary Rodham Clinton
37

Barack Obama
22

Al Gore
14

John Edwards
12

Bill Richardson
3

Joe Biden
1

Wesley Clark
1

Dennis Kucinich
1

Christopher Dodd
-

Al Sharpton
-

Unsure
9

.

1/19-21/07 12/5-7/06 11/17-19/06 10/27-29/06 8/30 - 9/2/06
% % % % %
Hillary Rodham Clinton
34
37
33
28
38

Barack Obama
18
15
15
17
n/a

John Edwards
15
9
14
13
12

Al Gore
10
14
14
13
19

John Kerry
5
7
7
12
9

Joe Biden
3
2
3
2
3

Wesley Clark
2
2
4
n/a
n/a

Dennis Kucinich
2
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

Bill Richardson
2
2
3
2
3

Christopher Dodd
1
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

Al Sharpton
1
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

Tom Vilsack
1
1
1
1
-

Unsure
7
10
4
8
8

Evan Bayh
n/a
1
2
2
2

Russ Feingold
n/a
n/a
n/a
2
3

Mark Warner
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
3

.

Excluding Gore -- recalculated based on second choice of Gore supporters:
.

3/9-11/07 1/19-21/07
% %
Hillary Rodham Clinton
44
37

Barack Obama
23
18

John Edwards
14
16

Bill Richardson
4
2

Wesley Clark
2
2

Joe Biden
1
3

Dennis Kucinich
1
2

Christopher Dodd
-
1

Al Sharpton
-
1

Other/Unsure
10
17


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs. March 5-7, 2007. N=806 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Democrats and leaners.

.

"If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below] for whom would you vote?"

.

%
Hillary Clinton 38

Barack Obama 21

Al Gore 14

John Edwards 10

Bill Richardson 4

Joe Biden 1

Chris Dodd -

None 5

Unsure 7


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




American Research Group poll. March 2-5, 2007. N=600 likely Democratic primary and caucus voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

.

Preference for Democratic Presidential Nominee:

.

%
Hillary Clinton 34

Barack Obama 31

John Edwards 15

Bill Richardson 2

Joe Biden 1

Wesley Clark 1

Chris Dodd 1

Dennis Kucinich 1

Mike Gravel -

Unsure 14


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R). March 2-5, 2007. Asked of Democrats, and non-Democrats who said they would vote in a Democratic presidential primary (from a total sample of 1,007 adults nationwide).

.

"Let me mention some people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2008. If the next Democratic primary for president were being held today, for which one of the following candidates would you vote . . . ?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean?"

.

3/2-5/07 12/8-11/06
% %
Hillary Clinton 40
37

Barack Obama 28
18

John Edwards 15
14

Bill Richardson 5
2

Joe Biden 2
4

Wesley Clark 1
n/a

Dennis Kucinich 1
n/a

Chris Dodd 1
n/a

Other (vol.) 1
3

None (vol.) 1
3

Unsure 5
5

John Kerry n/a
11

Evan Bayh n/a
3

Tom Vilsack n/a
-

.

"Thinking of these same candidates again, are there any candidates for whom you would definitely NOT vote for the Democratic nomination for president?"

.

3/2-5/07
%
Hillary Clinton 16

Dennis Kucinich 11

Joe Biden 9

John Edwards 7

Chris Dodd 7

Barack Obama 7

Wesley Clark 5

Bill Richardson 5

Other (vol.) 1

None (vol.) 29

Unsure 17

.

"If the choice for the Democratic nomination came down to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean?"

.

Hillary
Clinton Barack
Obama Neither/
Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % %
3/2-5/07
47 39 4 10